David Mullins, Zanele Kayumba, South Africa
Mosaka Economic Consultants cc, Trading as Conningarth Economists
For reference: D. Mullins, Z. Kayumba. Detailed projection of the South African economy – two stage approach based on the South African Inforum model (SAFRIM). 3 September 2019. Russia, Sochi, 27th Inforum Conference, URL: https:// ecfor.ru/publication/south-african-economy/
This presentation happened 3 September 2019, Russia, Sochi at 27th Inforum Conference.
The conference & materials: https://ecfor.ru/27th-inforum-world-conference/
Playlist with the other videos from the conference: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJBJFs8UgQgpmWWFzqw87jdwOBQXQmLfu
Inforum’s site: http://www.inforum.umd.edu/
Inforum, or Interindustry Forecasting at the University of Maryland, was founded nearly 50 years ago by Dr. Clopper Almon, now Professor Emeritus of the University. It is dedicated to improving business planning, government policy analysis, and the general understanding of the economic environment.
The host side was the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. IEF RAS specializes in fundamental, applied and exploratory scientific research in the field of analysis and forecasting of the socio-economic prospects of Russia and its regions, and the development of recommendations and proposals with a goal to improve the quality of economic policy in Russia. The site is https://ecfor.ru.
Step 1: Disaggregation of SAFRIM Projections through an Input – Output Approach
• Construction of an Input – Output table
• Constructing a NAM (Control total, Supply and Demand figures)
• Calculating commodity detail for the various final domestic demand components, using the supply and Use (S&U) tables from Stats SA (base Year 2017)
• Calculate imports and exports for the various commodities from the South African Reserve bank (SARB) and Calculating Value Added for the Various sectors
• Use a RAS to calculate intermediate demand
Step 2: Calculation detailed Exports, Imports and Production for Base year
Step 3: forecasting of final demand components basis: Inforum model
Step 4: Forecasting of individual commodities: Exports
Step 5: Forecasting of Individual Commodities: Imports
Step 6: Assumptions on Exogenous Variables
Step 7: Results